4Q 2019 — Tax-Free Fixed Income

Jamie Mullen
Senior Portfolio Manager

The continued decline in Treasury rates added to a third quarter of positive returns for municipal bonds. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index posted a return of 8.72% through the end of 2019. The Bloomberg 5-year Municipal Bond Index returned 5.45% for the year. Investors took notice and poured $90 billion into municipal bond mutual funds versus $4 billion in 2018.

The quarter began with the Bloomberg Municipal AAA curve at 1.45% and ending at 1.47%, just two basis points higher. The muni yield curve steepened during the quarter. As you will see, the real steepening was in the first five years of the curve where investors pushed ratios to 60-70% of Treasuries. Here are the Bloomberg AAA yield curve changes during the quarter.

Years Quarter Ending 9/30/19 Quarter Ending 12/31/19 BPS Changes
1 Yr 1.24% 1.03% - 21 BPS
5 Yr 1.24% 1.11% - 13 BPS
10 Yr 1.45% 1.47% +2 BPS
20 Yr 1.83% 1.88% +5 BPS
30 Yr 2.02% 2.10% +8 BPS

Source: Bloomberg, Ned Davis Research

 

As the curve steepened in October and November, the strategy underperformed its benchmark. December was in line as the portfolio benefited from the yield curve roll that happens every January as the optional call feature which premium bonds are priced to moves down the yield curve.

In our view, munis provide some of the best credits in the global fixed income arena. Munis react more to macro events such as tax law changes and yield curve shifts for example rather than to specific credit events. This year is a good example as Illinois and New Jersey, the states with the biggest headline risk, provided some of the best returns in the municipal market. The reason for this is that higher equity prices helped tamp down the talk of pension liabilities and low rates had investors looking for the highest yields available.

Tailwinds are still prevalent in munis although these should be more muted in 2020 as we are starting from overall lower Treasury yields than at the start of 2019. Credit quality deterioration should be minimal with full employment and a slow growth economy. Tax advantages will continue to keep individual demand strong.

Taxable new issue supply is a credit positive in our view. Municipalities continued to issue 5% coupons in the tax-free market for decades, not really taking advantage of lower interest rates. A shift to taxable issuance with current coupon structures should lower overall true interest costs to issuers. Lastly, the Fed appears to be accommodative.

As we enter 2020, we will continue our barbell approach to investing our SMA accounts and we believe this strategy is in line with our CIO Sean Clark’s interest rate outlook of a 10-year Treasury range of 1.50% -2.50%. 2.50% is cheap money, but it doesn’t feel that way when you move from 1.50% to 2.50%. Therefore, we believe active management versus a passive strategy warrants consideration.

Source: Bloomberg, Ned Davis Research

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Clark Capital Management Group. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. There is no guarantee of the future performance of any Clark Capital investments portfolio. Material presented has been derived from sources considered to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy, sell or hold any securities, other investments or to adopt any investment strategy or strategies. For educational use only. This information is not intended to serve as investment advice. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or research. The investment or strategy discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The S&P 500 measures the performance of the 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy, capturing 75% of U.S. equities.
The Barclays Capital 5 Year GO Municipal Bond Index represents the performance of long-term, investment grade tax-exempt bonds with maturities ranging from four (4) to six (6) years.
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The index is unmanaged and measures the performance of the investment grade, U.S. dollar denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market, including Treasuries and government-related and corporate securities that have a remaining maturity of at least one year.
The Bloomberg Barclays 5-Year Municipal Bond Index is the 5 Year (4-6) component of the Municipal Bond index. It is a rules-based, market-value-weighted index engineered for the tax-exempt bond market. The index tracks general obligation bonds, revenue bonds, insured bonds, and pre-refunded bonds rated Baa3/BBB- or higher by at least two of the ratings agencies.
This document may contain certain information that constitutes forward-looking statements which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “expect,” “will,” “hope,” “forecast,” “intend,” “target,” “believe,” and/or comparable terminology (or the negative thereof). Forward looking statements cannot be guaranteed. No assurance, representation, or warranty is made by any person that any of Clark Capital’s assumptions, expectations, objectives, and/or goals will be achieved. Nothing contained in this document may be relied upon as a guarantee, promise, assurance, or representation as to the future.
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc. reserves the right to modify its current investment strategies and techniques based on changing market dynamics or client needs. The information provided in this report should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security, sector or industry. There is no assurance that any securities, sectors or industries discussed herein will be included in an account’s portfolio. It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions, holdings or sectors discussed were or will prove to be profitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.
Clark Capital Management Group, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Clark Capital’s advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV which is available upon request. CCM-1130

Subscribe to our Blog!

Register to get all the latest content via email.
Button_Subscribe